Sports activities betting will be very worthwhile if you already know the secrets and techniques the “sensible cash” gamblers use to persistently earn a living. One of many largest secrets and techniques that sensible cash gamblers use is figuring out when NOT to wager.
Here is an ideal instance. I analyzed the West Virginia vs. Louisville sport, and concluded that West Virginia had the sting within the sport. Nonetheless, I additionally realized that there have been numerous random and unpredictable components, and really useful to my purchasers that they don’t wager on this sport. Right here is my evaluation I launched earlier than the sport:
West Virginia vs. Louisville
This sport has all of the indicators of being among the best video games of the 12 months 토토사이트, with each groups coming into the sport 7-Zero. It is #Three ranked West Virginia vs. #5 ranked Louisville, each with high-scoring offenses and stingy defenses. Final 12 months’s sport was a basic, with West Virginia getting back from being down large within the 4th quarter to successful in extra time.
So what is the sport seem like this 12 months?
If this sport had been being performed at a impartial area, West Virginia would most likely be a Four-6 level favourite. Because the sport is in Louisville, WVU is a 1-point underdog. Let’s examine if this is sensible…
West Virginia is on an unprecedented roll. They have not misplaced since Oct. 1, 2005, going 14-Zero since they misplaced to Virginia Tech. Within the final two seasons they’re 13-5 ATS as properly. They’re additionally 7-2 ATS of their final 9 video games general, and Eight-2 ATS of their final 10 ROAD video games.
These are some very spectacular stats that tilt the scales in favor of WVU for tonight’s sport. Plus, the added bonus is that WVU is GETTING +1 level. This will likely not seem to be a lot, however in an in depth match-up like this, that further level may make the distinction between a push and a loss.
However what about Louisville?
Louisville’s stats are virtually pretty much as good as WVU’s -except relating to Louisville protecting the purpose unfold. Of their final 10 video games, Louisville is simply Four-6 ATS. That mentioned, Louisville continues to be 7-Three ATS of their final 10 residence video games.
And should you’re leaning in direction of WVU, this is a scary stat… Louisville hasn’t misplaced at residence since December 18, 2003! Throughout this present run Louisville is averaging 49.Four factors per sport at residence, whereas averaging solely giving up 15.7 factors per sport at residence. In case you did not do the mathematics, meaning since their final residence loss they’ve averaged beating their opponents by about 34 factors per sport.
What’s extra spectacular, the common line in these video games has solely been 21 factors. Which means Louisville has overwhelmed the unfold, on common, by 13 factors per sport at residence since 2003.
Wow… how are you going to go in opposition to that?
Here is how…
Most of these stats had been constructed up throughout the 2005 season. This season, 2006, Louisville has been nearer to good than nice. They’ve had latest video games wherein they’ve solely scored 28, 23, 24 factors. And these video games weren’t in opposition to Ohio St. or Michigan. They had been in opposition to Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St.
The underside line is that that is nonetheless an in depth sport to name. However what I search for is West Virginia’s protection to hold the day. If Cincinnati, Syracuse, and Kansas St. can all maintain Louisville beneath 30 factors, then there is not any cause to assume WVU cannot maintain them to the low to mid 20’s. My trustworthy suggestion is to put off this sport and never wager in any respect. There are higher video games this weekend with extra clear-cut benefits.